Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has secured a fourth term as Brazil’s president, overcoming a tight race against Flávio Bolsonaro. His victory, announced around 9:10 p.m. on Sunday, came with 51.76% of the valid votes, compared to Flávio’s 48.24%, with 99.87% of the ballots counted.
At 80 years old, Lula faced a tough reelection battle after trailing Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round. Through an unprecedented mobilization on the streets and social media, he regained ground in the polls within three weeks, turning the tide in what seemed like a losing election.
A Political Comeback Against the Odds
Lula’s journey is one of remarkable resilience. From a child migrant escaping poverty in Brazil’s northeast to a union leader during the 1970s strikes, he co-founded the Workers’ Party under a dictatorship. He has now won the presidency four times through popular vote, despite facing defeat, imprisonment, and political setbacks.
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His latest victory highlights his remarkable ability to rally support, even when his political camp seemed weakened after the first round. In just 21 days, his campaign regained momentum, reorganized, and secured his reelection by a narrow margin.
Challenges Ahead for Lula’s Fourth Term
Despite his win, Lula faces significant challenges. He must learn from both the campaign and his third term, which nearly cost him reelection. With a more hostile Congress than in 2022, he needs to expand alliances, share power, and break the isolation that marked much of his previous term.
The “imperial Lula”, known for centralizing decisions and distancing himself from allies, must now become a listener and negotiator. He also needs to reconnect with key segments of society, particularly evangelicals and the middle class, and address issues like family budgets, debt, and the cost of living.
Flávio’s defeat does not signal the end of Bolsonarism. Lula underestimated his opponent’s political strength and the electoral impact of the 2023 coup attempt. Anti-Workers’ Party sentiment remains strong, and the right retains a significant presence in Congress. Lula’s victory does not grant him a free pass or allow him to ignore Brazil’s deep societal divisions.
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Brazil’s public finances pose another challenge. Lula faces growing debt, high interest rates, and limited resources for investments and new policies. He must resolve the fiscal impasse without compromising the social programs central to his legacy, while managing a demanding Congress and public expectations for economic results.
Lula must determine whether to lead a transitional government, ensuring the continuity of his political camp, or to leave a strong legacy in his final term. He can no longer delay building a successor and preparing the left for a post-Lula era. This requires empowering new leaders, making concessions to allies, and accepting that the future of progressive politics may not depend solely on the Workers’ Party.
It is difficult to imagine another Brazilian politician capable of overcoming such an adverse situation to produce a victory like this one. The result is an extraordinary personal triumph, but it also increases Lula’s responsibility regarding his own legacy. In his final term as president, after overcoming so many obstacles that seemed insurmountable, Lula faces a challenge that no election can solve alone. He spent decades transforming the impossible into reality. The remaining feat is to prepare the country and the left for the post-Lula era.
